Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned 'Sham' Election.

Polling materials in Burma
Myanmar's military is holding a staggered vote over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

Barry Anderson
Barry Anderson

A seasoned gaming analyst with over a decade of experience in UK lottery and casino industries, specializing in probability strategies.